To minimize the adoption risk, Hyper Poland and Rokanan Group decided to analyze the Hyperloop deployment scenarios. We would like to understand the chances and threats related to the Hyperloop and future trends in the transportation market.

Hyperloop is an emergent transportation technology, whose implementation will significantly reduce travel duration and expenditure. Within the European Union, this technology is expected to achieve travel times between any two cities in under three hours and at a price below €100. In Europe a number of teams are currently working hard on the technical aspects of this technology. Possible travel routes have already been presented and discussed in various studies.

The technical foundations are significantly advanced: a combination of a pipe system keeping the lower pressure inside and functionalities of metro or high-speed trains. They are to significantly increase a travel speed.  We can also expect good conditions, comparable to standards in international trains – much better than in the short and medium aeroplanes connections. Experts say that Hyperloop should open its first passenger connection in around 10 years.

However, a successful product introduction does not depend on the technology alone. We can provide many examples of brilliant inventions that waited for years in a locker for the market to accept them. Futuristic visions are risky as customers need to understand and accept the change (and a new value) that the product brings. Acceptance rate depends on many other factors, like culture; quality of existing technologies and services; legal and organizational or natural boundaries.

To minimize the adoption risk, Hyper Poland and Rokanan Group decided to analyze the above factors. We chosen the Evolutionary Forecasting methodology that is part of the General Theory of Innovation (GTI). We would like to understand the chances and threats related to the Hyperloop and future trends in the transportation market. We have also invited a few independent transportation market consultants to help us with their expertise.

Evolutionary Forecasting enables identification of future development of a selected market. According to GTI,  products evolve to provide more desired functionalities and reduce resources drawn from the environment (money, natural resources, knowledge etc) The core of Hyperloop technology is a radical reduction of travel time without increasing energy consumption. But….

Elon Musk perversely said that Hyperloop is ”a cross between a Concorde, a rail gun, and an air hockey table”. But how will the entire service look like?  Without a detailed answer to this question, we will not be able to understand how it will be adopted and in which European region will Hyperloop get the fastest acceptance.  We are going to analyze how the surrounding services, like passenger support, will look like and how the entire service impacts the future of the transportation market.

We have started in line with the methodology by gathering the data: technology, services and structure of existing European transportation market. In the next phase of the project, we will build the GTI model (RelEvent Diagram) to reveal how the Hyperloop service will deliver value to its customers. Then in the following phase, we will apply the Evolutionary Templates to understand how the market will evolve in the future.

Stay tuned as we will share updates from this project on our blog and social media channels..